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August 31, 2005
Mauricio Pierro
Outstanding illustration presented in a simple Portfolio for this Brazilian artist.
Posted by lck at 08:13 PM | Comments (0)
August 30, 2005
World Domination Enterprise Inc.
American Indians knew very well where not to establish a camp. The damps along the Mississippi Delta (facing straight most of the frequent Caribbean hurricanes) were such a place. They were just wise people. Humans and Nature are mutually exclusive elements now, not even part of the same group of equations. The flip side is we cope with disasters, we love the shivers from facing the enemy and the risk of being annihilated by its blind force.
Goodbye New Orleans, it was emotional.
We know that Baton Rouge was shattered. Amanda, if not an email, send up a smoke signal. We have a date, within a couple of years, at the Three Sisters. Don't forget!
In six pages, this article entirely explains the weather, geological and hydrological issues involved. It was published in 2001.
by Donna Howell: Katrina's Proving To Be A Tough Test For Technology
Mon Aug 29, 7:00 PM ET
Water, wind and wires make a bad mix.
Hurricane Katrina tangled with technology as it blew into Louisiana Monday. The storm spurred power, phone and Internet outages that could linger. On the plus side, technology, from radar to cell phones, provided a lifeline to people trying to escape the storm.
"The value of technology was in the warning time and the specificity. But when the hurricane hit, everything broke down," said George Friedman, chairman of Stratfor, which provides intelligence and analysis to corporate and government clients. "At this point (3:30 p.m. EDT), I would say we're pre-industrial. Cars aren't moving in and out. Boats can't go. You can sometimes get a cell phone connection -- usually not."
The next steps for checking on infrastructure -- assessing oil platform and ground damage, and deaths -- will be by aircraft and on foot, Friedman says. He points out that satellites, so useful for modern communications, can't see through the cloud cover.
As Katrina approached, evacuees relied on technology to coordinate travel. Some turned Web sites into emergency message boards. Blogger Mark Kraft, in Santa Clara, Calif., kept in touch with many members of the LiveJournal online community that stayed in New Orleans.
"One (member) I was trying to persuade to evacuate basically couldn't," he said. That person "actually got invited by another LiveJournaler to go to a secure apartment on the fourth floor of a building. They rode out the storm there."
LiveJournal has thousands of members from the New Orleans area, Kraft says. One posted updates from a data center in a tall building in town. Evacuees on the move also scrambled to communicate.
"A lot have been doing what's called a phone post," Kraft said. "You call a phone number, and it sort of acts like a voice-mail box. It records the conversation and posts it straight to your journal."
Communications infrastructure providers stood by Monday to start recovery efforts as soon as it became feasible. Cingular Wireless, for instance, had more than 500 emergency generators waiting to be dispatched, mostly at "rapid response" staging areas in Mobile, Ala., and Lafayette, La.
"New Orleans and Baton Rouge in Louisiana; Mobile, Ala.; and Biloxi, Miss. -- those seem to be the worst-hit areas," said Cingular spokesman Mark Siegel. "Once conditions are safe, we'll begin to dispatch recovery teams."
The SANS Institute, an Internet security training outfit, reported no major Internet disruption from the storm as of mid-Monday.
"So far, all the outages we see are local for that area," said Chief Research Officer Johannes Ullrich for SANS, which stands for systems administration, audit, network, security. "The only thing regional is that Internet2 (a next-generation network for universities) lost a link from Atlanta to Houston. And universities can route around it."
The problem was on a 10-gigabit link and related to an outage at a Qwest Communications (NYSE:Q - News) facility in New Orleans, said Doug Pearson, senior manager of a network operations center at Indiana University.
SunGard Availability Services, a provider of technology and office space in emergencies, said nine clients officially declared storm-related disasters and started up remote business continuity operations; 104 clients went on alert.
"Financial institutions are declaring, as are companies in the medical industry," said Bob DiLossi, manager of the company's crisis management center in Philadelphia. "State agencies have not declared, but are on alert."
Copyright © 2005 Investor's Business Daily
Copyright © 2005 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Posted by lck at 01:07 PM | Comments (0)
August 29, 2005
Mieke is on the loose
[ed - Mieke updates us on her roamings - lck]
Gutentag liebe luite!
On the 3th of September there is a Nekojuice Party-Expo in Berlin.
My puppets will be there in real life! Joehoeoeoe. Come by and snuff some art and come and dance, you are welcome! The evening starts at 21.00 o,clock!, At the Schonhauser Allee 167c in Berlin (als je toevallig in berlijn bent, kom effe langs, gezellig!)
See ya!
Greetings von die Mieke
Mieke Driessen illustraties
Posted by lck at 08:54 PM | Comments (0)
You want me to go where?
[ed - This is the first contribution by Mare McHenry. You can find more of her writings here. In this piece she delves into the topic of women in the military. Enjoy. - lck]
You want me to go where?
There's one really compelling argument for me not to join the Army. I
don't want to get deployed - well, that and the fact the any drill
Sgt. who might have the misfortune to have to train me would have a
stroke when I painted my M-16 pink, plastered Hello Kitty stickers on
the barrell and started knitting a cozy to keep the dirt off it.
Saying women in the military should not be deployed to battle zones is
pretty unpopular among feminist's (I think they might revoke my
membership card after reading this-I hope i get to keep the toaster).
I don't think women belong in combat. Not because they can't do the
job. Not because our country can't handle female battle casualties.
Not because they should be considered any less brave than their male
couterparts.
They should not be deployed for a few simple reasons. It doesn't make
financial sense to our military budget. Why are we paying women jump
pay when there is absolutely no chance that they will ever parachute
into a battle? Why are they issued equipment that they will never use?
Why does the army use it's resources to give women specialized combat
training when it is likely they will never have a chance to utilize
it? Also just silly things like this: The last thing that the women of
the 101st Airborne did before getting on a plane to deploy was go into
the ladies and take a pregnancy test. What? You'll trust them with a
weapon but you won't trust them not to get knocked up?
I've talked to a lot of soldiers who have been deployed to both
Afghanistan and Iraq. Male and Female. They all say that it is a
distraction. There are plenty of blogs coming out of Iraq and
Afghanistan to know that there is an awful lot of hanky panky going
on. Anytime you put 150,000 American soldiers in a foreign country
where they can't drink or socialize with the locals your going to have
some issues. Hell, there are internet boards devoted soley to porn
provided by female soldiers in Iraq (in uniform). That's having an
awful lot of time on your hands isn't it? I looked at one picture and
thought to myself. Where does she get the time for the bikini tan line
and the french manicure. Now true...she's just one soldier. But there
were at least another dozen I saw on that board alone. And no...I will
not give you the address. If you have time to give yourself a French
manicure in a combat zone you shouldn't be there, plain and simple. In
fact it's an insult to what I would call the real women who are trying
to do their jobs and earn respect. Frenchy makes the rest of those
women look bad.
Taking these kinds of incidents a little further, they also serve to
magnify the stratification between genders in theatre. When loved ones
at home see images of female soldiers relaxing next to the pool in a
bikini they might get a little pissed when their son or husband writes
home about day after day of patrols and close calls with IED's.
Granted there are also men relaxing by those pools. From what I gather
they are R&R facilities. But of course what out MSM chooses to publish
are the pics of the hot girls in the bikini's. I'm not saying this
characterization is fair. But if you want to play by the big boy rules
and be in a combat zone then there is some sucking up to be done. You
should also not run and cry to your CO if someone is talking to your
chest instead of your face, put's up a poster on a scantily clad
Pamela Anderson, or calls you Honey. They are men, not robots. If you
don't like how they treat women...fine, don't date them. But from what
I've seen men in the military bend over backwards to ensure that there
is not even the slightest implication of favoritism or treating women
differently in their unit. They're too afraid, and that is a
distraction from the mission as well.
Which brings me to another excellent point. The women who volunteer
and serve our country deserve just as much respect and opportunity as
the men. Unfortunately the system of promotion and subsequent pay
upgrade is flawed. You don't get promoted without experience. And
being deployed gives you a lot more experience and thus better
promotion. I know it's an unpopular concept, but the Army needs to
consider some sort of separate but equal promotion system, so that
women can move up the ranks based on their experience and knowledge,
not on whether or not they've spent time in Afghanistan, Iraq or
Bosnia. Perhaps this means closing certain jobs within the military to
women. Again not too popular an idea. But I think the DOD needs to
take a closer look at what particular jobs women are better at than
men and funnel them that way.
I know that the military is a microcosm of our nation. But it
shouldn't be the grand social experiment that it currently is. Not
when peoples lives are at stake. You want to join an elite combat
unit? Fine, but you have to pass the exact same standards as the men.
Personally, even at my most fit there is no way I could've carried a
220 lb man more than a couple of feet. And I'm not sure I would want
to have to rely on someone who may or may not be able to do the job
being put in the position of having to save someone I loved. That
concept doesn't make me a June Cleaver clone or a Phyllis Schafly
cheerleader. I'm merely trying to point out that we talking about
flesh and blood, not numbers and statistics. We need to give everyone
the absolute best chance they can get of coming home safe and whole.
Please don't think for a second that the women who serve our country
deserve anything less than our utmost respect for their dedication.
Sgt. Leigh Ann Hester was awarded a Silver Star awarded for bravery
under fire this year. There is no doubt that there are may brave women
out there who can do this job. To date 47 women have given their lives
in Iraq in defense of our nation. 313 women have been wounded
seriously enough to require evacuation. Yet the official DOD policy is
that women are not permitted in combat. The army specifically gets
aroud this rule by allowing women in support units attached to
battalions. It is time to revisit this policy. The current situation
in Iraq exists because the military cannot get enough recruits to fill
critical positions. So they are filled with female soldiers. The line
between a combat zone and the rear is small and blurry.
© Mare McHenry
Posted by lck at 08:21 PM | Comments (1)
August 28, 2005
Flatland vs. Rocky Mountains
By Jeff Leeds on the New York Times, a short report on an impending uphill battle, this time on the iTunes Music Store.
The story is rather simple: Steve Jobs wants to maintain the one-price model that iTunes has, since inception, adopted - 99 cents to download any song - two out of four major record companies want it replaced with a more complex structure that prices songs by popularity. A hot new single, for example, could sell for $1.49, while a golden oldie could go for substantially less than 99 cents.
Most of the sticky business above will surely find its way in the next six months, in the meantime find the whole article here.
Posted by lck at 12:37 AM | Comments (0)
August 26, 2005
Kooki
You may not like sushi but you may like chocolate. Superb and effective website execution, beautiful copywork and graphics. And you don't have to be a New Yorker! en-joy!
Posted by lck at 12:55 AM | Comments (2)
August 23, 2005
Sticky Fingers
For numerous reasons major newspapers, local (Italians, where I live) and not, fail regularly to make sense of their reports. Reasons are many, deeply nested in the media business and perfectly logical to their business model(s). At the other end it is unfair to say that media just ignore content. Content gets dressed up, on a daily basis, from simple photo-illustration materials up to more serious unsigned op-eds, in order to make sense within their representation, which is, their business model(s). Blogs (and content within) are booming by filling the vacua, the leftover wild space that can not be represented without considerable expenses on the part of the media factories. What I am going to do today is pick up some random content that you can find on g-world and reword it in a way that, hopefully, will make more sense. The fact that George Bush is mentioned in many of these snippets is just ironic or he really had a bad day.
The Rolling Stones self-censored their own anti-Bush song, afraid it may be boycotted on media broadcasts in the US, on the eve of their Tour, following the issue of a new album. The Stones still can't cope with the US and with marketing of a song after 40 years in the field. It is easy to predict another floppy. From a crew that could sell us "no hope - no fear" we were expecting more.
Editor of Tell me a Secret, an Iraqi blog run by Khalis Jarrar (brother to Raed) was abducted by the new Iraqi mukhabarat as suspected for the London bombing! (They could have found a better excuse that was both intimidating and believable). Khalis has been blogging for 3 years, is not a radical by any stretch of imagination, writes in English and is very well known in the West for criticizing the USA invasion by illustrating plain Iraqi's everyday's life on a similar vein as what Riverbend (an Iraqi girl) does on Baghdad Burning. Civil rights in Iraq closing down? Invade China and free Chinese because they are boycotting Google? Unfortunately hammering down these few non-oriented voices may be part of a larger strategy that fits into America's exit strategy as well as into the not so far out Iran-shaped-Iraq.
Public orientation in the US is leaning strongly against the president on War in Iraq to a degree never seen before, enough to embarrass the Dems who had started playing conservative after the past Presidential Elections. The planners "on the dark side" have fine knowledge of American public orientation as the latest attacks are all targeting American troops (3 attacks in Ramadi, all car bombs, and that is just today). Iraqi can not be stabilized without serious, extensive and down-to-earth diplomatic effort. I emphasize down-to-earth: there is just not enough money, troops and patience to invade/liberate several neighboring countries simultaneously, including Oil-King Saudi. (... a decent and responsible plan for US withdrawal can be found here by good Juan Cole.
The price of finalizing a draft Iraqi constitution in the last tense few hours before yesterday's deadline was the exclusion of the Sunnis. After a week of complaints the Sunnis angrily said they "reject the draft constitution that was submitted because we did not have an accord on it" as one negotiator put it. But Sunni rejection of a central Kurdish and Shia political demand - federalism - proved too great an obstacle for negotiators determined to submit a document on time. (The Kurdish and Shia dominated assembly, wary of a missing a deadline that might have meant the dissolution of the body, decided at the last minute to approve a three-day extension to iron out what a wire service paraphrased the Shia assembly speaker as calling "final wording.") In a speech to a Utah audience, President Bush said yesterday "All of Iraq's main ethic and religious groups are working together on this vital project." By contrast, one Sunni member of the drafting commission warned the proposed Kurdish-Shia constitution "has elements that will lead to the break-up of Iraq and civil war."... Even worse, the draft of Iraqi constitution states Islam (Shari’a or Islamic law) the main source of legislation. Is that enough on the face of Mrs. Rice? Looking for some good negotiator here that knows the power of wording a constitution as well as carrying enough pounding power to reword it. It's not about giving gay rights, it's about giving women the right to live.
Chinese Petrochina buys out petroKazakhstan, via a friendly IPO to begin October 2005. Petrochina will control about 15% of Kazakhstan resources (which contributes to 3% of world resources), including oil and natural gas. The area is the world's most promising source for future, untapped, oil reserves. This is an important success for China after Cnooc failed to acquire American company Unolocal due to the American Congress vetoing the acquisition. China is in talks with Kazakhstan authorities to build a 3000 Km pipeline and has been participating to joint military exercises with Russia. Kazakhstan (and Turkmenistan) repeatedly invited the USA to close down bases, used in support of Enduring Freedom, and a final term of 3 months was issued to USA Secretary of Defense, Rumsfield. What's missing here is, besides getting the word Kazakhstan correct, a clear understanding of what is happening in this area. Media have been reporting in bits and pieces, but have failed to give a clear picture. The ball is back to the White House and the game isn't over yet.
Now a multi-faceted pearl in several sauces, related to a new drug, experiments being conducted on lab monkeys:
1 NEWKERALA.COM It may be good news for millions of call centre employees who work in night shifts and always complain about lack of sleep taking a toll on their mental and physical health. In a breakthrough study researchers have found a new drug which can temporarily improve performance and reverse the effects of sleep deprivation on the brain.
2 REUTERS A drug dubbed CX717, made by Cortex Pharmaceuticals, Irvine, California, reverses the biological and behavioral effects of sleep deprivation, according to results of animal studies.
3 FORBES Shift-workers, hospital staff clocking long hours, and other sleep-challenged Americans may someday have a means of restoring full alertness even if sleep-deprived.
4 BBC A drug could reverse the effects of sleep deprivation in the brain, a US study of monkeys has suggested.
This article shows that the race to discovering new drugs (normally said to be good candidates to fight Alzheimer's disease) is far from over.
Note how Forbes emphasizes the wording "sleep-challenged Americans" (#3).
If by checking how this is reported on #4, BBC, you see little disturbing colored rainbows, maybe this drug can help you.
Weird how Newkerala (#1) puts call-centre workers at the forefront of the sleep-deprived army. Not so weird when you consider this online newspaper is based in India.
For good enough reasons nobody goes as far as hinting to what the natural market to such drugs is (albeit probably illegal). Boys say Disco.
Don't forget to check Blogger's BlogSpot Objectionable Flag, active today. Please, pick up something censorable.
Posted by lck at 07:26 PM | Comments (0)
August 22, 2005
The "Community" is watching
Your feature may be "Objectionable", beware before you join Blogger.
This is how Blogger (owned by Google Inc.) describes the new "feature": "The Flag button allows the blogging community to easily note questionable content, which in turn helps us take action when needed. So we're relying on you, the users, to be our eyes on the web, and to let us know of potential issues that are important to you." [...] "We generally do not review the content posted through our service but our responsibility extends beyond Blogger users to casual readers of Blog*Spot. The Flag button is a means by which readers of Blog*Spot can help inform us about potentially questionable content, so we can prevent others from encountering such material by setting particular blogs as unlisted. This means the blog won't be promoted on Blogger.com but will still be available on the web — we prefer to keep in mind that one person's vulgarity is another's poetry. Or something like that."
Paid service has advantages, old enough tune.
In the meantime is unclear what Schumacher is still doing at Ferrari besides filling contractual obligations. Michael has never been popular here but give him a car to drive. Rumors are he's in talks with Merc. And is naive to believe Valentino Rossi will save Ferrari, he was born on two wheels, don't forget.
Talking of heroes (and heroines), around this time a century ago Greta Garbo was born. Time to go rent Ninotchka again.
Posted by lck at 12:54 AM | Comments (0)
August 20, 2005
Are we that bad?
The cherry on top of a week of iconoclastic currencies, features and op-eds is the one on Icograda (front porch). Guaranteed to spark a hot debate, fireworks included, When the Branding Circus Comes to Town by Naseem Javed, recognized as a world authority on Global Name Identities, Image, Cyber-Branding and Domain Issues, is close to knocking your socks off. To the extent that some in the know are wondering if this short essay on branding is serious at all. In this case maybe the issue will die out and Icograda may have missed a case for heating up the Fall. What do you think, are we really that bad?
Posted by lck at 12:31 PM | Comments (0)
August 19, 2005
Knitting Theory
This post is dedicated to zib and all her knitting friends at knitty.com. Zib helped, acting as a consultant for the jargon up to where language gets blurred just enough. As I live with her, time was fine to talk about knitting, which she turned out to be extremely good at. But I have not yet learned how to knit, see:-?
Enjoy.
Knitting Theory
Knitting Theory was discovered in 1485 by Alan Pattern, a mathematician, in cooperation (and not in competition) with E. Redd and E. Green by what is believed to be pure chance.
The best and worst of life, Nietsche never got it, comes from chance.
While researching basic properties of fabric compounds and getting high on generous amount of Stutt (beer), according to mythology, the ladies went into suggesting that components of matter in these compounds are not point-like, as we still believe they are, but spaghetti-like, or stringy. The discovery sparked a whole new breed of housewive's behaviors and fashion trends that have developed and evolved in time. Knitting Theory is peculiar for its cryptic, mathematically-dense language. The most exotic and advanced versions of the theory are excellently summarized quarterly online on knitty.com and exposed in writing in SnB and IK, available from specialized bookstores.
Knitting Theory is based on strings of fabric or wool (yarn) that can show topologically peculiar properties: in the most common incarnation the theory predicts yarn that have loose ends, in others yarn is closed in a loop, anchored to a surface (like in zib's purses) or lie in fuzzy manifolds (mess or stash) set aside for "untangling". Yarn behaves much like spaghetti naturally and knitters spend most of the time consistently untangling the Italian mess. This inordinate state is common and predicted by theory which suggests several ways and tools to make a clean and ordinate "skein" or "yarn cake" out of a typical mess. Popular tools are "the swift" and the "ball winder". By using any of these tools and a kid on minimum wage, but not a cat, a utterly mess of yarn can be made into a tidy "yarn cake". If you have a very disciplined cat at hand, risk is yours to try. Knitters indulge happily in a trance-like state, admiring their stash accrued beyond life expectancy only to find themselves frantically in the other extreme known as "paradoxical sorting syndrome" or PSS.
Yarn cakes can be found ready-made in all sorts of colors and variants in shops called LYS. These are dark alcove-like shops recalling an Irish Pub, but without the smoke and beer, located next to the most unusual neighbors. Yarn can occasionally be found available at the LOYM. SEX is lots of fun for knitters but can be boring to their partners, who can be found mostly hanging around wandering dogs, kids and other memorabilia waiting for knitters to be done with the SEX and eventually coming out smiling with bags chock-full of multicolored "skeins".
Knitting is a religious-like theory and allows for no compromise in practice. A true knitter can be easily offended if you sarcastically notice that all her projects are WIPs and UFOs. As for other personality-empowering activities, accessories are important and bear their own exotic code-name and language. Knitters rely on an extensive army of tools. From aluminum needles to wooden sticks often made from exotic materials such as bamboo or ebony, from elaborate yarn cutters to colorful stitch-markers, a full range of these can be found. (Some of the tools can sometimes sport a slightly obscene look, such as the nosty. If you are of faint heart think twice or look for ethical advice before joining)
In recent development heretical versions of the theory have been formulated. One of these assigns tools to functions other than usual like self-defense and tactical fight. Followers of this interpretation are troops, who specialize in hats and socks. Another sect includes the BcoD Devotees, knitters who “boil” the knitted yarn to make a soup. This is know as “felting” and its followers “shrink-heads”.
A bag full of colored cakes (yellow-cake is treated especially for its radiant properties) is just half the job. Theory implies you know what you're doing, which is the hard part and philosophy does not help.
Yarn can be worked by any combination of sized and shaped sticks into elaborate patterns and designs. Several topological categories, some sleek, some ugly, some hair-raising exist. You can knit skeins to make socks, scarves, skirts and purses and dog-bags but also whips, bras and pants for your favorite animal. Patterns can be drawn on paper, on computers or come via email from a friend in the form of spam or viruses. The theory makes clear that it does not matter how good you are, you will make mistakes. This is called "tolerance". Experienced knitters exhibit low tolerance. When said knitters find they have made a mistake the best of them will find a way to incorporate it as a design feature. But mistakes are part of life, for which a cure may or may not exist. Going fishing is a cure, divorce, while an extreme remedy, another, but to stop knitting is not a cure. All in all, don't fool yourself, if you made mistakes staying in frogging denial is just a temporary option!
Living with a knitter is not easy. To which degree varies based on the knitter's personality as knitters come in all flavors. The sociological kind is common, to which knitting is a crusade, the polarized kind, to which an SKP and a K2TOG are mutually exclusive, the helping type, which needs to help you even when you never asked for help and the guru type, which only lives in Nepal. Some knitters are militant to their partner, which is, they want their mate to be involved. This can develop in requesting for help winding a hank (which can have catastrophic results), help choosing color and design (which turns into masochism easily) and can go as far as outsourcing a design to the mate. The latter, technically called "black hole initiative" is definitely hairy business and can go as far as what is known as "annihilation", don't try it if you are the Romantic type.
Unfortunately for me I don't take my own advice and I am now working on a design for a lady's top that falls into the hair-raising category. D&G are making inquires and we are keeping the thing secret but, well, now you know.
Minimal glossary for those not in the know
SnB Stick n' Bitch. Refers to a knitting group or the book by Debbie Stoller
IK Interweave Knits Magazine
Stash Cumulative inventory of all yarn in posses of a knitter or "path integral"
Skein Elementary unit of yarn, normally found as a unit of 50 or 100 grams
Yarn cake Product of winding yarn on a ball winder
Swift tool Extendable tool used to hold a hank of yarn usually in conjunction with a ball winder or a nosty
Ball winder tool Small tool used to wind up yarn to yarn cakes
PSS paradoxical sorting syndrome
LYS Local Yarn Store
LOYM Little Old Yarn Man
SEX Stash Enhancement Expedition
Frogging Ripping out the work in order to correct errors
Frogging denial Procastinate frogging
WIP Work In Progress
UFO Unfinished Object
Nosty phallic implement used to wind a ball of yarn when a ball winder is not available
BcoD Boiling Cauldron of Death
SKP Slip Knit Pass Over
K2TOG Knit Two Together
Posted by lck at 06:12 PM | Comments (4)
November in the Summer
Patrick Watson - Just Another Ordinary Day - 2004
Watson meshes jazz, rock and pop with experimental and electronic music sensibilities to create an absolute masterpiece. A cinematic, emotive journey, both uplifting and melancholy, encapsulated in a painfully short 45 minutes through nine tracks. Pianist, vocalist and sound designer Watson, a member of the Sevens Project, leads a cast including guitarist Simon Angell, drummer Robbie Kuster and bassist Mishka Stein to near perfection.
Available at the iTunes Music Store
Available streams:
Step into a dream
Hurracan
Gnossienne
Posted by lck at 10:45 AM | Comments (0)
August 18, 2005
Chindia
Business Week is out with a double monographic issue on the rising role of both China and India (shunted to Chindia). The following article is a fraction of the whole report. What is new (this time) is BW goes as far as forecasting scenarios we normally read about at the very end of the Bible, in the Book of Apocalypse. The article, and more so the whole double issue, is a very interesting reading.
BW online is a complex website littered with advertising and with little regard for compatibility with several minor browsers. That is why we are not linking the issue. However, the report is accessible from their home page, rights on the piece belong to the magazine.
(A Russo-Chinese joint military operation is in progress between Vladivostok and the Jiaodong peninsula. This type of relationship may have been overlooked as well as the future role of Russia in the region)
A New World Economy
The balance of power will shift to the East as China and India evolve
It may not top the must-see list of many tourists. But to appreciate Shanghai's ambitious view of its future, there is no better place than the Urban Planning Exhibition Hall, a glass-and-metal structure across from People's Square. The highlight is a scale model bigger than a basketball court of the entire metropolis -- every skyscraper, house, lane, factory, dock, and patch of green space -- in the year 2020.
There are white plastic showpiece towers designed by architects such as I.M. Pei and Sir Norman Foster. There are immense new industrial parks for autos and petrochemicals, along with new subway lines, airport runways, ribbons of expressway, and an elaborate riverfront development, site of the 2010 World Expo. Nine futuristic planned communities for 800,000 residents each, with generous parks, retail districts, man-made lakes, and nearby college campuses, rise in the suburbs. The message is clear. Shanghai already is looking well past its industrial age to its expected emergence as a global mecca of knowledge workers. "In an information economy, it is very important to have urban space with a better natural and social environment," explains Architectural Society of Shanghai President Zheng Shiling, a key city adviser.
It is easy to dismiss such dreams as bubble-economy hubris -- until you take into account the audacious goals Shanghai already has achieved. Since 1990, when the city still seemed caught in a socialist time warp, Shanghai has erected enough high-rises to fill Manhattan. The once-rundown Pudong district boasts a space-age skyline, some of the world's biggest industrial zones, dozens of research centers, and a bullet train. This is the story of China, where an extraordinary ability to mobilize workers and capital has tripled per capita income in a generation, and has eased 300 million out of poverty. Leaders now are frenetically laying the groundwork for decades of new growth.
INVALUABLE ROLE
Now hop a plane to India. It is hard to tell this is the world's other emerging superpower. Jolting sights of extreme poverty abound even in the business capitals. A lack of subways and a dearth of expressways result in nightmarish traffic.
But visit the office towers and research and development centers sprouting everywhere, and you see the miracle. Here, Indians are playing invaluable roles in the global innovation chain. Motorola, (MOT) Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and other tech giants now rely on their Indian teams to devise software platforms and dazzling multimedia features for next-generation devices. Google (GOOG) principal scientist Krishna Bharat is setting up a Bangalore lab complete with colorful furniture, exercise balls, and a Yamaha organ -- like Google's Mountain View (Calif.) headquarters -- to work on core search-engine technology. Indian engineering houses use 3-D computer simulations to tweak designs of everything from car engines and forklifts to aircraft wings for such clients as General Motors Corp. (GM) and Boeing Co (BA). Financial and market-research experts at outfits like B2K, OfficeTiger, and Iris crunch the latest disclosures of blue-chip companies for Wall Street. By 2010 such outsourcing work is expected to quadruple, to $56 billion a year.
Even more exhilarating is the pace of innovation, as tech hubs like Bangalore spawn companies producing their own chip designs, software, and pharmaceuticals. "I find Bangalore to be one of the most exciting places in the world," says Dan Scheinman, Cisco Systems Inc.'s senior vice-president for corporate development. "It is Silicon Valley in 1999." Beyond Bangalore, Indian companies are showing a flair for producing high-quality goods and services at ridiculously low prices, from $50 air flights and crystal-clear 2 cents-a-minute cell-phone service to $2,200 cars and cardiac operations by top surgeons at a fraction of U.S. costs. Some analysts see the beginnings of hypercompetitive multinationals. "Once they learn to sell at Indian prices with world quality, they can compete anywhere," predicts University of Michigan management guru C.K. Prahalad. Adds A. T. Kearney high-tech consultant John Ciacchella: "I don't think U.S. companies realize India is building next-generation service companies."
SIMULTANEOUS TAKEOFFS
China and India. Rarely has the economic ascent of two still relatively poor nations been watched with such a mixture of awe, opportunism, and trepidation. The postwar era witnessed economic miracles in Japan and South Korea. But neither was populous enough to power worldwide growth or change the game in a complete spectrum of industries. China and India, by contrast, possess the weight and dynamism to transform the 21st-century global economy. The closest parallel to their emergence is the saga of 19th-century America, a huge continental economy with a young, driven workforce that grabbed the lead in agriculture, apparel, and the high technologies of the era, such as steam engines, the telegraph, and electric lights.
But in a way, even America's rise falls short in comparison to what's happening now. Never has the world seen the simultaneous, sustained takeoffs of two nations that together account for one-third of the planet's population. For the past two decades, China has been growing at an astounding 9.5% a year, and India by 6%. Given their young populations, high savings, and the sheer amount of catching up they still have to do, most economists figure China and India possess the fundamentals to keep growing in the 7%-to-8% range for decades.
Barring cataclysm, within three decades India should have vaulted over Germany as the world's third-biggest economy. By mid-century, China should have overtaken the U.S. as No. 1. By then, China and India could account for half of global output. Indeed, the troika of China, India, and the U.S. -- the only industrialized nation with significant population growth -- by most projections will dwarf every other economy.
What makes the two giants especially powerful is that they complement each other's strengths. An accelerating trend is that technical and managerial skills in both China and India are becoming more important than cheap assembly labor. China will stay dominant in mass manufacturing, and is one of the few nations building multibillion-dollar electronics and heavy industrial plants. India is a rising power in software, design, services, and precision industry. This raises a provocative question: What if the two nations merge into one giant "Chindia?" Rival political and economic ambitions make that unlikely. But if their industries truly collaborate, "they would take over the world tech industry," predicts Forrester Research Inc (FORR ). analyst Navi Radjou.
In a practical sense, the yin and yang of these immense workforces already are converging. True, annual trade between the two economies is just $14 billion. But thanks to the Internet and plunging telecom costs, multinationals are having their goods built in China with software and circuitry designed in India. As interactive design technology makes it easier to perfect virtual 3-D prototypes of everything from telecom routers to turbine generators on PCs, the distance between India's low-cost laboratories and China's low-cost factories shrinks by the month. Managers in the vanguard of globalization's new wave say the impact will be nothing less than explosive. "In a few years you'll see most companies unleashing this massive productivity surge," predicts Infosys Technologies (INFY ) CEO Nandan M. Nilekani.
To globalization's skeptics, however, what's good for Corporate America translates into layoffs and lower pay for workers. Little wonder the West is suffering from future shock. Each new Chinese corporate takeover bid or revelation of a major Indian outsourcing deal elicits howls of protest by U.S. politicians. Washington think tanks are publishing thick white papers charting China's rapid progress in microelectronics, nanotech, and aerospace -- and painting dark scenarios about what it means for America's global leadership.
Such alarmism is understandable. But the U.S. and other established powers will have to learn to make room for China and India. For in almost every dimension -- as consumer markets, investors, producers, and users of energy and commodities -- they will be 21st-century heavyweights. The growing economic might will carry into geopolitics as well. China and India are more assertively pressing their interests in the Middle East and Africa, and China's military will likely challenge U.S. dominance in the Pacific.
One implication is that the balance of power in many technologies will likely move from West to East. An obvious reason is that China and India graduate a combined half a million engineers and scientists a year, vs. 60,000 in the U.S. In life sciences, projects the McKinsey Global Institute, the total number of young researchers in both nations will rise by 35%, to 1.6 million by 2008. The U.S. supply will drop by 11%, to 760,000. As most Western scientists will tell you, China and India already are making important contributions in medicine and materials that will help everyone. Because these nations can throw more brains at technical problems at a fraction of the cost, their contributions to innovation will grow.
CONSUMERS RISING
American business isn't just shifting research work because Indian and Chinese brains are young, cheap, and plentiful. In many cases, these engineers combine skills -- mastery of the latest software tools, a knack for complex mathematical algorithms, and fluency in new multimedia technologies -- that often surpass those of their American counterparts. As Cisco's Scheinman puts it: "We came to India for the costs, we stayed for the quality, and we're now investing for the innovation."
A rising consumer class also will drive innovation. This year, China's passenger car market is expected to reach 3 million, No. 3 in the world. China already has the world's biggest base of cell-phone subscribers -- 350 million -- and that is expected to near 600 million by 2009. In two years, China should overtake the U.S. in homes connected to broadband. Less noticed is that India's consumer market is on the same explosive trajectory as China five years ago. Since 2000, the number of cellular subscribers has rocketed from 5.6 million to 55 million.
What's more, Chinese and Indian consumers and companies now demand the latest technologies and features. Studies show the attitudes and aspirations of today's young Chinese and Indians resemble those of Americans a few decades ago. Surveys of thousands of young adults in both nations by marketing firm Grey Global Group found they are overwhelmingly optimistic about the future, believe success is in their hands, and view products as status symbols. In China, it's fashionable for the upwardly mobile to switch high-end cell phones every three months, says Josh Li, managing director of Grey's Beijing office, because an old model suggests "you are not getting ahead and updated." That means these nations will be huge proving grounds for next-generation multimedia gizmos, networking equipment, and wireless Web services, and will play a greater role in setting global standards. In consumer electronics, "we will see China in a few years going from being a follower to a leader in defining consumer-electronics trends," predicts Philips Semiconductors (PHG ) Executive Vice-President Leon Husson.
For all the huge advantages they now enjoy, India and China cannot assume their role as new superpowers is assured. Today, China and India account for a mere 6% of global gross domestic product -- half that of Japan. They must keep growing rapidly just to provide jobs for tens of millions entering the workforce annually, and to keep many millions more from crashing back into poverty. Both nations must confront ecological degradation that's as obvious as the smog shrouding Shanghai and Bombay, and face real risks of social strife, war, and financial crisis.
Increasingly, such problems will be the world's problems. Also, with wages rising fast, especially in many skilled areas, the cheap labor edge won't last forever. Both nations will go through many boom and harrowing bust cycles. And neither country is yet producing companies like Samsung, Nokia (NOK), or Toyota (TM) that put it all together, developing, making, and marketing world-beating products.
Both countries, however, have survived earlier crises and possess immense untapped potential. In China, serious development only now is reaching the 800 million people in rural areas, where per capita annual income is just $354. In areas outside major cities, wages are as little as 45 cents an hour. "This is why China can have another 20 years of high-speed growth," contends Beijing University economist Hai Wen.
Very impressive. But India's long-term potential may be even higher. Due to its one-child policy, China's working-age population will peak at 1 billion in 2015 and then shrink steadily. China then will have to provide for a graying population that has limited retirement benefits. India has nearly 500 million people under age 19 and higher fertility rates. By mid-century, India is expected to have 1.6 billion people -- and 220 million more workers than China. That could be a source for instability, but a great advantage for growth if the government can provide education and opportunity for India's masses. New Delhi just now is pushing to open its power, telecom, commercial real estate and retail sectors to foreigners. These industries could lure big capital inflows. "The pace of institutional changes and industries being liberalized is phenomenal," says Chief Economist William T. Wilson of consultancy Keystone Business Intelligence India. "I believe India has a better model than China, and over time will surpass it in growth."
For its part, China has yet to prove it can go beyond forced-march industrialization. China directs massive investment into public works and factories, a wildly successful formula for rapid growth and job creation. But considering its massive manufacturing output, China is surprisingly weak in innovation. A full 57% of exports are from foreign-invested factories, and China underachieves in software, even with 35 software colleges and plans to graduate 200,000 software engineers a year. It's not for lack of genius. Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT ) 180-engineer R&D lab in Beijing, for example, is one of the world's most productive sources of innovation in computer graphics and language simulation.
While China's big state-run R&D institutes are close to the cutting edge at the theoretical level, they have yet to yield many commercial breakthroughs. "China has a lot of capability," says Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Craig Mundie. "But when you look under the covers, there is not a lot of collaboration with industry." The lack of intellectual property protection, and Beijing's heavy role in building up its own tech companies, make many other multinationals leery of doing serious R&D in China.
China also is hugely wasteful. Its 9.5% growth rate in 2004 is less impressive when you consider that $850 billion -- half of GDP -- was plowed into already-glutted sectors like crude steel, vehicles, and office buildings. Its factories burn fuel five times less efficiently than in the West, and more than 20% of bank loans are bad. Two-thirds of China's 1,300 listed companies don't earn back their true cost of capital, estimates Beijing National Accounting Institute President Chen Xiaoyue. "We build the roads and industrial parks, but we sacrifice a lot," Chen says.
India, by contrast, has had to develop with scarcity. It gets scant foreign investment, and has no room to waste fuel and materials like China. India also has Western legal institutions, a modern stock market, and private banks and corporations. As a result, it is far more capital-efficient. A BusinessWeek analysis of Standard & Poor's (MHP ) Compustat data on 346 top listed companies in both nations shows Indian corporations have achieved higher returns on equity and invested capital in the past five years in industries from autos to food products. The average Indian company posted a 16.7% return on capital in 2004, vs. 12.8% in China.
SMALL-BATCH EXPERTISE
The burning question is whether India can replicate China's mass manufacturing achievement. India's info-tech services industry, successful as it is, employs fewer than 1 million people. But 200 million Indians subsist on $1 a day or less. Export manufacturing is one of India's best hopes of generating millions of new jobs.
India has sophisticated manufacturing knowhow. Tata Steel is among the world's most-efficient producers. The country boasts several top precision auto parts companies, such as Bharat Forge Ltd. The world's biggest supplier of chassis parts to major auto makers, it employs 1,200 engineers at its heavily automated Pune plant. India's forte is small-batch production of high-value goods requiring lots of engineering, such as power generators for Cummins Inc. (CMI) and core components for General Electric Co. (GE) CAT scanners.
What holds India back are bureaucratic red tape, rigid labor laws, and its inability to build infrastructure fast enough. There are hopeful signs. Nokia Corp. is building a major campus to make cell phones in Madras, and South Korea's Pohang Iron & Steel Co. plans a $12 billion complex by 2016 in Orissa state. But it will take India many years to build the highways, power plants, and airports needed to rival China in mass manufacturing. With Beijing now pushing software and pledging intellectual property rights protection, some Indians fret design work will shift to China to be closer to factories. "The question is whether China can move from manufacturing to services faster than we can solve our infrastructure bottlenecks," says President Aravind Melligeri of Bangalore-based QuEST, whose 700 engineers design gas turbines, aircraft engines, and medical gear for GE and other clients.
However the race plays out, Corporate America has little choice but to be engaged -- heavily. Motorola illustrates the value of leveraging both nations to lower costs and speed up development. Most of its hardware is assembled and partly designed in China. Its R&D center in Bangalore devises about 40% of the software in its new phones. The Bangalore team developed the multimedia software and user interfaces in the hot Razr cell phone. Now, they are working on phones that display and send live video, stream movies from the Web, or route incoming calls to voicemail when you are shifting gears in a car. "This is a very, very critical, state-of-the-art resource for Motorola," says Motorola South Asia President Amit Sharma.
Companies like Motorola realize they must succeed in China and India at many levels simultaneously to stay competitive. That requires strategies for winning consumers, recruiting and managing R&D and professional talent, and skillfully sourcing from factories. "Over the next few years, you will see a dramatic gap opening between companies," predicts Jim Hemerling, who runs Boston Consulting Group's Shanghai practice. "It will be between those who get it and are fully mobilized in China and India, and those that are still pondering."
In the coming decades, China and India will disrupt workforces, industries, companies, and markets in ways that we can barely begin to imagine. The upheaval will test America's commitment to the global trade system, and shake its confidence. In the 19th century, Europe went through a similar trauma when it realized a new giant -- the U.S. -- had arrived. "It is up to America to manage its own expectation of China and India as either a threat or opportunity," says corporate strategist Kenichi Ohmae. "America should be as open-minded as Europe was 100 years ago." How these Asian giants integrate with the rest of the world will largely shape the 21st-century global economy.
Posted by lck at 11:33 AM | Comments (0)
Timelines of Art History
Timelines of Art History are a joy to children, a torture to students and a pastime to historians.
The Metropolitan Museum has its own Timeline of Art History online since 2000, a growing chronological, geographically oriented, and thematic exploration as illustrated by the Metropolitan Museum of Art's collection. As a reference and research tool for students, educators and anyone interested in the study of art history and related subjects the Timeline extends from prehistory to the present day.
The site is definitely a good rendering and the navigation is agile and usable. Seach on contents works well and an alphabetized index of subjects is available. New acquisitions are made available quickly, alternative views of objects are available as well as a non-intrusive attempt at linking related content. And if you get lost a Site Map will come in handy.
Simpler, text-based navigation Timelines of Art History can be found at Art & Archeology, Michael D. Gunther's impressive attempt, on Yahoo and at the North Carolina Museum of Art website.
Posted by lck at 09:57 AM | Comments (0)
Don't Click
I'm clearly having a day on the sarcastic or is it reviewing the old Zappa live in NYC, which is due every six months or so for good brain cleansing.
Don't click it is a brillant experiment and there it stays. In the context of the current and here-to-stay, point-and-click interface metaphor, clicking is an essental element of the decisional process. Tiny little mustaches, that is what we do when we browse structures and content, in a word: filtering.
To play is part of life so try (not to click), see how well you fare!
Clicking gets you ten seconds of white noise and some guilt. You have been warned.
Posted by lck at 12:09 AM | Comments (0)
August 17, 2005
Room with a few
Dock 5 is a building in Victoria Harbour in Melbourne. A spectacular structure, towering over Victoria's most enviable location. It is not cheap to rent an apartment on Dock 5, it's the waterfront, but most interesting is the website design.
The website predictably bets on empowering individuality and exclusiveness. And the whole of the swiss cheese put on work is rather silly.
Starting with a derivative static lysergic entry screen, soft-porn soundtrack in the style of old Robert Linstrom, to follow is a collection of clip-arts that include a toy-boat, a measuring tape, a knot (to illustrate "Connection"), a lure (Time-out), jewelry (Choice), a mirror (Personal Style), the silhouette of a naked girl drinking coffe or tea (Floor plans), shots of design furniture (An exclusive design chair and a silver fosset), wine bottles (for basement cellaring) and a tin star (Quality).
The algebra of marketing pitch may just be obsolete, too literal or in frantic search of a consistent exit strategy but rare is to see one as deranged as this one.
The designer of this oddity is, good for him, unknown.
Posted by lck at 09:45 PM | Comments (0)
A Universe just right
The argument from the "Just Right" Universe seems to catch on among some "design" creationists. The faults of this argument are apparent. The "anthropic principle" states that the universe must be in such a state that it at least in some of its history can allow life to develop. It follows, some theoriets argued, from some remarkable coincidences in the makeup of the universe, without which life as we know it could not develop.
It is a fundamental principle of science that a theory that describes a phenomenon must be falsifiable, that is, there must be (theoretical) observations that would disprove the theory if it is wrong. More generally, it is a principle that a theory that explains everything explains nothing. That means, that if there are no theoretical observations that cannot be accounted for by the theory, then it has no predictive power and is effectively useless.
A theory that should try to prove that this universe is created by an intelligent Designer, must follow such rules. It must be possible to postulate a universe not created by a Designer, and then explain how this universe differs from the universe we have. It would then follow, if the arguments were sound, that ours was a universe created by an Intelligent Designer.
But the problem is, that by definition such a universe would be one without life, since it could not possibly sustain life. The argument is thus demonstrated to be pitifully circular, since the conclusion (that life is designed) is already smuggled into the hidden premises of the argument.
Thus, in any theoretical universe, even one that was the result of only natural processes, the inhabitants could think up the Design Argument and apply it. And they could just as well be wrong. Thus, the argument fails even the most basic test by not having any predictive power.
Hugh Ross is a strenuous supporter of the Anthropic Principle and its validity. It is interesting to see how flaws develop in his argument by design. The following is Chapter 14 from his book.
A "Just Right" Universe, by Hugh Ross, Chapter 14
No other generation has witnessed so many discoveries about the universe. No other generation has seen the measuring of the cosmos. For previous generations the universe remained a profound mystery. But we are alive to see several of its mysteries solved.
Not only can we measure certain aspects of the universe, but in these measurements we are discovering some of the characteristics of the One who fashioned it all. Astronomy has provided us with new tools to probe the Creator’s personality.
Building Blocks Problem
Before the measuring of the cosmos, non-theists assumed the availability of the appropriate building blocks for life. They posited that, with enough time, the right natural processes, and enough building blocks, even systems as complex as organisms could be assembled without the help of a Supreme Being. In chapters 3, 7, 8, and 9, we have seen there is not sufficient time. In this chapter we’ll consider just how amazing it is that the universe provides the right building blocks and the right natural processes for life.
To put this situation in perspective, imagine the possibility of a Boeing 747 aircraft being completely assembled as a result of a tornado striking a junkyard. Now imagine how much more unlikely that possibility would be if bauxite (aluminum ore) is substituted for the junk parts. Finally, imagine the possibility if instead of bauxite, river silt is substituted. So, too, as one examines the building blocks necessary for life to come into existence, the possibility of that happening without someone or something designing them stretches the imagination beyond the breaking point. Four major building blocks must be designed "just right" for life.
1. Getting the Right Molecules
For life to be possible, more than forty different elements must be able to bond together to form molecules. Molecular bonding depends on two factors, the strength of the force of electromagnetism and the ratio of the mass of the electron to the mass of the proton.
If the electromagnetic force were significantly larger, atoms would hang on to electrons so tightly no sharing of electrons with other atoms would be possible. But if the electromagnetic force were significantly weaker, atoms would not hang on to electrons at all, and again, the sharing of electrons among atoms, which makes molecules possible, would not take place. If more than just a few kinds of molecules are to exist, the electromagnetic force must be more delicately balanced yet.
The size and stability of electron orbits about the nuclei of atoms depends on the ratio of the electron mass to the proton mass. Unless this ratio is delicately balanced, the chemical bonding essential for life chemistry could never take place.
2. Getting the Right Atoms
Life molecules cannot be built unless sufficient quantities of the elements essential for life are available. This means atoms of various sizes must be able to form. For that to happen, a delicate balance must exist for each of the constants of physics governing the strong and weak nuclear forces, and gravity, also for the nuclear ground state energies (quantum energy levels important for the forming of elements from protons and neutrons) for several key elements.
In the case of the strong nuclear force—the force governing the degree to which protons and neutrons stick together in atomic nuclei—the balance is easy to see. If this force were too weak, protons and neutrons would not stick together. In that case, only one element would exist in the universe, hydrogen, because the hydrogen atom has only one proton and no neutrons in its nucleus. On the other hand, if the strong nuclear force were of slightly greater strength than what we observe in the cosmos, protons and neutrons would have such an affinity for one another that not one would remain alone. They would all find themselves attached to many other protons and neutrons. In such a universe there would be no hydrogen, only heavy elements. Life chemistry is impossible without hydrogen; it is also impossible if hydrogen is the only element.
How delicate is the balance for the strong nuclear force? If it were just 2% weaker or 0.3% stronger than it actually is, life would be impossible at any time and any place within the universe.1
Are we just considering life as we know it? No, we’re talking about any conceivable kind of life chemistry throughout the cosmos. This delicate condition must be met universally.
In the case of the weak nuclear force—the force that governs, among other things, the rates of radioactive decay—if it were much stronger than what we observe the matter in the universe would quickly be converted into heavy elements. But if it were much weaker, the matter in the universe would remain in the form of just the lightest elements. Either way, the elements essential for life chemistry (such as carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus) either would not exist at all or would exist in amounts far too small for all the life-essential chemicals to be built. Further, unless the weak nuclear force were delicately balanced, those life-essential elements that are produced only in the cores of supergiant stars would never escape the boundaries of those cores (supernova explosions would become impossible).2
The strength of the force of gravity determines how hot the nuclear furnaces in the cores of stars will burn. If the gravitational force were any stronger, stars would be so hot they would burn up relatively quickly, too quickly and too erratically for life. Additionally, a planet capable of sustaining life must be supported by a star that is both stable and long burning. However, if the gravitational force were any weaker, stars never would become hot enough to ignite nuclear fusion. In such a universe no elements heavier than hydrogen and helium would be produced.
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Fred Hoyle discovered that an incredible fine tuning of the nuclear ground state energies for helium, beryllium, carbon, and oxygen was necessary for any kind of life to exist. The ground state energies for these elements cannot be higher or lower with respect to each other by more than 4% without yielding a universe with insufficient oxygen or carbon for life.3 Hoyle, who has written extensively against theism4 and Christianity in particular,5 nevertheless concluded on the basis of this quadruple fine tuning that "a superintellect has monkeyed with physics, as well as with chemistry and biology."6
3. Getting the Right Nucleons
One must monkey with the physics of the universe to get enough of the right elements for life, and further to get those elements to join together to form life molecules. One must also fine-tune the universe to get enough nucleons (protons and neutrons) to form the elements.
In the first moments after creation, the universe contained about ten billion and one nucleons for every ten billion anti-nucleons. The ten billion anti-nucleons annihilated the ten billion nucleons, generating an enormous amount of energy. All the galaxies and stars that make up the universe today were formed from the leftover nucleons. If the initial excess of nucleons over anti-nucleons were any smaller, there would not be enough matter for galaxies, stars, and heavy elements to form. If the excess were any greater, galaxies would form, but they would so efficiently condense and trap radiation that none of them would fragment to form stars and planets.
The neutron is 0.138% more massive than a proton. Because of this extra mass, neutrons require slightly more energy to make than protons. So as the universe cooled from the hot big bang creation event, it produced more protons than neutrons—in fact, about seven times as many.
If the neutron were just another 0.1% more massive, so few neutrons would remain from the cooling off of the big bang that there would not be enough of them to make the nuclei of all the heavy elements essential for life. The extra mass of the neutron relative to the proton also determines the rate at which neutrons decay into protons and protons build into neutrons (one neutron = one proton + one electron + one neutrino). If the neutron were 0.1% less massive, so many protons would be built up to make neutrons that all the stars in the universe would have rapidly collapsed into either neutron stars or black holes.7 Thus for life to be possible in the universe, the neutron mass must be fine tuned to better than 0.1%.
Another decay process involving protons must also be fine-tuned for life to exist. Protons are believed to decay into mesons (a type of fundamental particle). I say "believed to" because the decay rate is so slow experimenters have yet to record a single decay event (average decay time for a single proton exceeds 4 x 1032 years). Nevertheless, theoreticians are convinced that protons must decay into mesons, and at a rate fairly close to the current experimental limits. If protons decay any slower into mesons, the universe of today would not have enough nucleons to make the necessary galaxies, stars, and planets.8 This is because the factors that determine this decay rate also determine the ratio of nucleons to antinucleons at the time of the creation event. Thus, if the decay rate were slower, the number of nucleons would have been too closely balanced by the number of antinucleons, which after annihilation would have left too few nucleons.
If, however, the decay rate of protons into mesons were faster, in addition to the problem of a too large ratio of nucleons to antinucleons, there would also be an additional problem from the standpoint of maintaining life. Because a tremendous amount of energy is released in this particular decay process, the rate of decay would destroy or harm life. Thus the decay rate cannot be any greater than it is.
4. Getting the Right Electrons
Not only must the universe be fine-tuned to get enough nucleons, but also a precise number of electrons must exist. Unless the number of electrons is equivalent to the number of protons to an accuracy of one part in 1037, or better, electromagnetic forces in the universe would have so overcome gravitational forces that galaxies, stars, and planets never would have formed.
One part in 1037 is such an incredibly sensitive balance that it is hard to visualize. The following analogy might help: Cover the entire North American continent in dimes all the way up to the moon, a height of about 239,000 miles. (In comparison, the money to pay for the U.S. federal government debt would cover one square mile less than two feet deep with dimes.) Next, pile dimes from here to the moon on a billion other continents the same size as North America. Paint one dime red and mix it into the billion piles of dimes. Blindfold a friend and ask him to pick out one dime. The odds that he will pick the red dime are one in 1037. And this is only one of the parameters that is so delicately balanced to allow life to form.
At whatever level we examine the building blocks of life—electrons, nucleons, atoms, or molecules—the physics of the universe must be very meticulously fine-tuned. The universe must be exactingly constructed to create the necessary electrons. It must be exquisitely crafted to produce the protons and neutrons required. It must be carefully fabricated to obtain the needed atoms. Unless it is skillfully fashioned, the atoms will not be able to assemble into complex enough molecules. Such precise balancing of all these factors is truly beyond our ability to comprehend. Yet with the measuring of the universe, even more astounding facts become apparent.
Cosmos’ Expansion
The first parameter of the universe to be measured was the universe’s expansion rate. In comparing this rate to the physics of galaxy and star formation, astrophysicists found something amazing. If the universe expanded too rapidly, matter would disperse so efficiently that none of it would clump enough to form galaxies. If no galaxies form, no stars will form. If no stars form, no planets will form. If no planets form, there’s no place for life. On the other hand, if the universe expanded too slowly, matter would clump so effectively that all of it, the whole universe in fact, would collapse into a super-dense lump before any solar-type stars could form.
What’s even more amazing is how delicately balanced that expansion rate must be for life to exist. It cannot differ by more than one part in 1055 from the actual rate.
An analogy that still does not come close to describing the precarious nature of this balance would be a million pencils all simultaneously positioned upright on their points on a smooth glass surface with no external supports.
The inflationary big bang model for the universe offers a physical explanation for why the universe is poised so delicately in its expansion rate. As the four fundamental forces of physics (the forces of gravity, strong nuclear, weak nuclear, and electromagnetic) separated from one another during the first split second after the creation event, it is possible to have a brief period of hyper-inflation (lasting only 10-34 seconds) that virtually guarantees the universe later on will expand at a rate that permits life to exist. Of course, what that does is trade one exquisite balance (the expansion rate of the cosmos) for another (the values of a set of several constants of physics).
In addition to requiring exquisite fine-tuning of the forces and constants of physics, the existence of life demands still more. It demands that the fundamental particles, the energy, and the space-time dimensions of the universe enable the principles of quantum tunneling and special relativity to operate exactly as they do. Quantum tunneling must function no more or less efficiently than what we observe for hemoglobin to transport the right amount of oxygen to the cells of all vertebrate and most invertebrate species.9 Likewise, relativistic corrections, not too great and not too small, are essential in order for copper and vanadium to fulfill their critical roles in the functioning of the nervous system and bone development of all the higher animals.10
Measuring the Universe’s Age
The second parameter of the universe to be measured was its age. For many decades astronomers and others have wondered why, given God exists, He would wait so many billions of years to make life. Why did He not do it right away? The answer is that, given the laws and constants of physics God chose to create, it takes about ten to twelve billion years just to fuse enough heavy elements in the nuclear furnaces of several generations of giant stars to make life chemistry possible.
Life could not happen any earlier in the universe than it did on Earth. Nor could it happen much later. As the universe ages, stars like the sun—located in the right part of the galaxy for life (see chapter 15) and in a stable nuclear burning phase—become increasingly rare. If the universe were just a few billion years older, such stars would no longer exist.
A third parameter that I already discussed to some extent is entropy, or energy degradation. In chapter 3, I explained the evidence for the universe possessing an extreme amount of specific entropy. This high level of entropy is essential for life. Without it, systems as small as stars and planets would never form. But as extremely high as the entropy of the universe is, it could not be much higher. If it were higher, systems as large as galaxies would never form. Stars and planets cannot form without galaxies.
Star Masses
A fourth parameter, another very sensitive one, is the ratio of the electromagnetic force constant to the gravitational force constant. If the electromagnetic force relative to gravity were increased by just one part in 1040, only small stars would form. And, if it were decreased by just one part in 1040, only large stars would form. But for life to be possible in the universe, both large and small stars must exist. The large stars must exist because only in their thermonuclear furnaces are most of the life-essential elements produced. The small stars like the sun must exist because only small stars burn long enough and stably enough to sustain a planet with life.11
Considering again the piles of dimes, one part in 1040 is equivalent to a blindfolded person rummaging through a trillion piles of dimes the size of North America that reach to the moon and picking out, on the first try, the one red dime.
In the late ’80s and early ’90s, several other characteristics of the universe were measured successfully. Each of these, too, indicated a careful fine-tuning for the support of life. Currently, researchers have uncovered twenty-six characteristics that must take on narrowly defined values for life of any kind to possibly exist. A list of these characteristics and the reasons they must be so narrowly defined is given in table 14.1.
The list of finely tuned characteristics for the universe continues to grow. Parameters 24, 25, and 26, for example, were added just in the last several months.13 The more accurately and extensively astronomers measure the universe, the more finely tuned they discover it to be. Also, as we have seen for many of the already measured characteristics, the degree of fine-tuning is utterly amazing— far beyond what human endeavors can accomplish.
For example, arguably the best machine ever built by man is a brand new gravity wave detector engineered by California Institute of Technology physicists to make measurements accurate to one part in 1023. By comparison, three different characteristics of the universe must be fine-tuned to better than one part in 1037 for life of any kind to exist (for comment on why life must be carbon-based, see section entitled "Another Kind of Life" on pages 133–134). My point is that the Entity who brought the universe into existence must be a personal Being, for only a person can design with anywhere near this degree of precision. Consider, too, that this personal Entity must be at least a hundred trillion times more "capable" than are we human beings with all our resources.
Table 14.1: Evidence for the Fine-Tuning of the Universe12
More than two dozen parameters for the universe must have values falling within narrowly defined ranges for life of any kind to exist.
1. strong nuclear force constant
If larger: no hydrogen; nuclei essential for life would be unstable
If smaller: no elements other than hydrogen
2. Weak nuclear force constant
If larger: too much hydrogen converted to helium in big bang, hence too much heavy element material made by star burning; no expulsion of heavy elements from stars
If smaller: too little helium produced from big bang, hence too little heavy element material made by star burning; no expulsion of heavy elements from stars
3. Gravitational force constant
If larger: stars would be too hot and would burn up too quickly and too unevenly
If smaller: stars would remain so cool that nuclear fusion would never ignite, hence no heavy element production
4. Electromagnetic force constant
If larger: insufficient chemical bonding; elements more massive than boron would be too unstable for fission
If smaller: insufficient chemical bonding
5. Ratio of electromagnetic force constant to gravitational force constant
If larger: no stars less than 1.4 solar masses hence short stellar life spans and uneven stellar luminosities
If smaller: no stars more than 0.8 solar masses, hence no heavy element production
6. Ratio of electron to proton mass
If larger: insufficient chemical bonding
If smaller: insufficient chemical bonding
7. Ratio of numbers of protons to electrons
If larger: electromagnetism would dominate gravity, preventing galaxy, star, and planet formation
If smaller: electromagnetism would dominate gravity, preventing galaxy, star, and planet formation
8. Expansion rate of the universe
If larger: no galaxy formation
If smaller: universe would collapse prior to star formation
9. Entropy level of the universe
If smaller: no proto-galaxy formation
If larger: no star condensation within the proto-galaxies
10. Mass density of the universe
If larger: too much deuterium from big bang hence stars burn too rapidly
If smaller: insufficient helium from big bang, hence too few heavy elements forming
11. Velocity of light
If faster: stars would be too luminous
If slower: stars would not be luminous enough
12. Age of the universe
If older: no solar-type stars in a stable burning phase in the right part of the galaxy
If younger: solar-type stars in a stable burning phase would not yet have formed
13. Initial uniformity of radiation
If smoother: stars, star clusters, and galaxies would not have formed
If coarser: universe by now would be mostly black holes and empty space
14. Fine structure constant (a number used to describe the fine structure splitting of spectral lines)
If larger: DNA would be unable to function; no stars more than 0.7 solar masses
If smaller: DNA would be unable to function; no stars less than 1.8 solar masses
15. average distance between galaxies
if larger: insufficient gas would be infused into our galaxy to sustain star formation over an adequate time span
if smaller: the sun’s orbit would be too radically disturbed
16. average distance between stars
if larger: heavy element density too thin for rocky planets to form
if smaller: planetary orbits would become destabilized
17. decay rate of the proton
if greater: life would be exterminated by the release of radiation
if smaller: insufficient matter in the universe for life
18. 12Carbon (12C) to 16Oxygen (16O) energy level ratio
if larger: insufficient oxygen
if smaller: insufficient carbon
19. ground state energy level for 4Helium (4He)
if larger: insufficient carbon and oxygen
if smaller: insufficient carbon and oxygen
20. decay rate of 8Beryllium (8Be)
if slower: heavy element fusion would generate catastrophic explosions in all the stars
if faster: no element production beyond beryllium and, hence, no life chemistry possible
21. mass excess of the neutron over the proton
if greater: neutron decay would leave too few neutrons to form the heavy elements essential for life
if smaller: proton decay would cause all stars to collapse rapidly into neutron stars or black holes
22. initial excess of nucleons over anti-nucleons
if greater: too much radiation for planets to form
if smaller: not enough matter for galaxies or stars to form
23. polarity of the water molecule
if greater: heat of fusion and vaporization would be too great for life to exist
if smaller: heat of fusion and vaporization would be too small for life’s existence; liquid water would become too inferior a solvent for life chemistry to proceed; ice would not float, leading to a runaway freeze-up
24. supernovae eruptions
if too close: radiation would exterminate life on the planet
if too far: not enough heavy element ashes for the formation of rocky planets
if too frequent: life on the planet would be exterminated
if too infrequent: not enough heavy element ashes for the formation of rocky planets
if too late: life on the planet would be exterminated by radiation
if too soon: not enough heavy element ashes for the formation of rocky planets
25. white dwarf binaries
if too few: insufficient fluorine produced for life chemistry to proceed
if too many: disruption of planetary orbits from stellar density; life on the planet would be exterminated
if too soon: not enough heavy elements made for efficient fluorine production
if too late: fluorine made too late for incorporation in proto-planet
26. ratio of exotic to ordinary matter
if smaller: galaxies would not form
if larger: universe would collapse before solar type stars could form
God and the Astronomers
The discovery of this degree of design in the universe is having a profound theological impact on astronomers. As we noted already, Hoyle concludes that "a superintellect has monkeyed with physics, as well as with chemistry and biology,"14 and Davies has moved from promoting atheism15 to conceding that "the laws [of physics]... seem themselves to be the product of exceedingly ingenious design."16 He further testifies:
[There] is for me powerful evidence that there is something going on behind it all… It seems as though somebody has fine-tuned nature’s numbers to make the Universe.... The impression of design is overwhelming.17
Astronomer George Greenstein, in his book The Symbiotic Universe, expressed these thoughts:
As we survey all the evidence, the thought insistently arises that some supernatural agency—or, rather, Agency—must be involved. Is it possible that suddenly, without intending to, we have stumbled upon scientific proof of the existence of a Supreme Being? Was it God who stepped in and so providentially crafted the cosmos for our benefit?18
Tony Rothman, a theoretical physicist, in a popular-level article on the anthropic principle (the idea that the universe possesses narrowly defined characteristics that permit the possibility of a habitat for humans) concluded his essay with these words:
The medieval theologian who gazed at the night sky through the eyes of Aristotle and saw angels moving the spheres in harmony has become the modern cosmologist who gazes at the same sky through the eyes of Einstein and sees the hand of God not in angels but in the constants of nature.... When confronted with the order and beauty of the universe and the strange coincidences of nature, it’s very tempting to take the leap of faith from science into religion. I am sure many physicists want to. I only wish they would admit it.19
In a review article on the anthropic principle published in the journal Nature, cosmologists Bernard Carr and Martin Rees state in their summary: "Nature does exhibit remarkable coincidences and these do warrant some explanation."20 Carr in a more recent article on the anthropic principle continues:
One would have to conclude either that the features of the universe invoked in support of the Anthropic Principle are only coincidences or that the universe was indeed tailor-made for life. I will leave it to the theologians to ascertain the identity of the tailor!21
Physicist Freeman Dyson concluded his treatment of the anthropic principle with, "The problem here is to try to formulate some statement of the ultimate purpose of the universe. In other words, the problem is to read the mind of God."22 Vera Kistiakowsky, MIT physicist and past president of the Association of Women in Science, commented, "The exquisite order displayed by our scientific understanding of the physical world calls for the divine."23 Arno Penzias, who shared the Nobel Prize for physics for the discovery of the cosmic background radiation, remarked:
Astronomy leads us to a unique event, a universe which was created out of nothing, one with the very delicate balance needed to provide exactly the conditions required to permit life, and one which has an underlying (one might say "supernatural") plan.24
Years before communism’s fall, Alexander Polyakov, a theoretician and fellow at Moscow’s Landau Institute, declared:
We know that nature is described by the best of all possible mathematics because God created it. So there is a chance that the best of all possible mathematics will be created out of physicists’ attempts to describe nature.25
China’s famed astrophysicist Fang Li Zhi and his co-author, physicist Li Shu Xian, recently wrote, "A question that has always been considered a topic of metaphysics or theology the creation of the universe has now become an area of active research in physics."26
In the 1992 film about Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time, Hawking’s colleague, distinguished mathematician Roger Penrose, commented, "I would say the universe has a purpose. It’s not there just somehow by chance."27 Hawking and Penrose’s colleague George Ellis made the following statement in a paper delivered at the Second Venice Conference on Cosmology and Philosophy:
Amazing fine-tuning occurs in the laws that make this [complexity] possible. Realization of the complexity of what is accomplished makes it very difficult not to use the word "miraculous" without taking a stand as to the ontological status of that word.28
Cosmologist Edward Harrison makes this deduction:
Here is the cosmological proof of the existence of God—the design argument of Paley—updated and refurbished. The fine-tuning of the universe provides prima facie evidence of deistic design. Take your choice: blind chance that requires multitudes of universes or design that requires only one.... Many scientists, when they admit their views, incline toward the teleological or design argument.29
Allan Sandage, winner of the Crafoord prize in astronomy (equivalent to the Nobel prize), remarked, "I find it quite improbable that such order came out of chaos. There has to be some organizing principle. God to me is a mystery but is the explanation for the miracle of existence, why there is something instead of nothing."30 Robert Griffiths, who won the Heinemann prize in mathematical physics, observed, "If we need an atheist for a debate, I go to the philosophy department. The physics department isn’t much use."31 Perhaps astrophysicist Robert Jastrow, a self-proclaimed agnostic,32 best described what has happened to his colleagues as they have measured the cosmos:
For the scientist who has lived by his faith in the power of reason, the story ends like a bad dream. He has scaled the mountains of ignorance; he is about to conquer the highest peak; as he pulls himself over the final rock, he is greeted by a band of theologians who have been sitting there for centuries.33
In all my conversations with those who do research on the characteristics of the universe, and in all my readings of articles or books on the subject, not one person denies the conclusion that somehow the cosmos has been crafted to make it a fit habitat for life. Astronomers by nature tend to be independent and iconoclastic. If an opportunity for disagreement exists, they will seize it. But on the issue of the fine-tuning or careful crafting of the cosmos, the evidence is so compelling that I have yet to hear of any dissent.
The Creator’s Personality
Does the fine-tuning imply purposeful design? So many parameters must be fine tuned and the degree of fine tuning is so high, no other conclusion seems possible.
As Harrison pointed out, the evidence permits only two options: divine design or blind chance. Blind chance, as we saw in chapter 12, is ruled out since conclusions based on chance must be derived from known, not hypothetical, sample sizes. The known sample size for the universe(s) is one and always will be only one since the space-time manifold for the universe is closed (meaning we humans cannot, even in principle, ever discover anything about others possibly existing).
Much more is going on, however, than mere talk by astronomers about the design of the cosmos for life support. Words such as somebody fine tuned nature, superintellect, monkeyed, overwhelming design, miraculous, hand of God, ultimate purpose, God’s mind, exquisite order, very delicate balance, exceedingly ingenious, supernatural Agency, supernatural plan, tailor-made, Supreme Being, and providentially crafted obviously apply to a Person. Beyond just establishing that the Creator is a Person, the findings about design provide some evidence of what that Person is like.
One characteristic that stands out dramatically is His interest in and care for living things, particularly the human race. We see this care in the vastness and quality of the resources devoted to life support.
For example, the mass density of the universe, as huge as it is, focuses on the needs of humans. How? The mass density determines how efficiently nuclear fusion operates in the cosmos. The mass density we measure translates into about a hundred-billion-trillion stars for the presently observable universe. As table 14.1 indicates (page 118), if the mass density is too great, too much deuterium (an isotope of hydrogen with one proton and one neutron in the nucleus) is made in the first few minutes of the universe’s existence. This extra deuterium will cause the stars to burn much too quickly and erratically for any of them to support a planet with life. On the other hand, if the mass density is too small, so little deuterium and helium are made in the first few minutes that the heavier elements necessary for life will never form in stars. What this means is that the approximately hundred-billion-trillion stars we observe in the universe—no more and no less—are needed for life to be possible in the universe. God invested heavily in living creatures. He constructed all these stars and carefully crafted them throughout the age of the universe so that at this brief moment in the history of the cosmos humans could exist and have a pleasant place to live.
Non-Theistic Responses
When it comes to the finely tuned characteristics of the universe, non-theists find themselves in a difficult spot. The evidence is too weighty and concrete to brush aside. The evidence is inanimate; so appeals to Darwinist hypotheses cannot be made. Appeals to near infinite time are thwarted by the proofs for time’s creation only a few billion years ago. The following three arguments seem to cover the range of non-theistic replies to the evidence for cosmic design:
Argument 1: We would not be here to observe the universe unless the extremely unlikely did take place.
The evidence for design is merely coincidental. Our existence simply testifies that the extremely unlikely did, indeed, take place by chance. In other words, we would not be here to report on the characteristics of the universe unless chance produced these highly unlikely properties.
Rebuttal: This argument is fundamentally an appeal to infinite chances, which already has been answered (see chapter 12). Another response has been developed by philosopher Richard Swinburne34 and summarized by another philosopher, William Lane Craig:
Suppose a hundred sharpshooters are sent to execute a prisoner by firing squad, and the prisoner survives. The prisoner should not be surprised that he does not observe that he is dead. After all, if he were dead, he could not observe his death. Nonetheless, he should be surprised that he observes that he is alive.35
To extend Craig and Swinburne’s argument, the prisoner could conclude, since he is alive, that all the sharpshooters missed by some extremely unlikely chance. He may wish to attribute his survival to an incredible bit of good luck, but he would be far more rational to conclude that the guns were loaded with blanks or that the sharpshooters all deliberately missed. Someone must have purposed he should live. Likewise, the rational conclusion to draw from the incredible fine tuning of the universe is that Someone purposed we should live.
Argument 2: The design of the universe is mere anthropomorphism.
American astrophysicist Joseph Silk in his latest effort to communicate the physics of big bang cosmology to lay people mocks the conclusion that the universe has been fine-tuned for the support of life. He compares the "silliness" of the design idea with the folly of a flea’s assumption that the dog on which it feeds has been designed precisely for its benefit. The flea’s error, he suggests, becomes all too apparent once the dog is outfitted with a flea collar.36
Silk’s argument ignores some key issues. While the flea may be a little self-centered in assuming that the dog was designed exclusively for it, there’s no reason to deny that the dog was designed for a purpose, or for several purposes. (The myth that life is strictly the product of accidental natural processes is addressed in chapter 16.) The flea collar may argue more strongly for design (e.g., population control) than for lack of it. More importantly, while we can imagine a wide range of hosts suitable for the support of the flea, each of them requires elements of design to facilitate the flea’s survival. Though suitable hosts for the flea are relatively abundant, suitable universes for life are not. Astrophysicists have been unable to invent hypothetical universes significantly different from ours that could support human beings or for that matter any conceivable kind of physical, intelligent life.
Argument 3: Design arguments are outside the realm of science and, therefore, must be ignored.
The publications of the National Center for Science Education, among other anti-creationist groups, repeatedly assert that science is "empirically based and necessarily materialist; miracles cannot be allowed," and that "any theory with a supernatural foundation is not scientific."37 Since the design arguments imply supernatural intervention, they can be justifiably ignored because they "cannot be considered scientific."38
Rebuttal: To affirm that science and theology are mutually exclusive may be convenient for materialists unwilling to defend their philosophy, but it is untenable. Science is rarely religiously neutral. Similarly, religious faith is rarely scientifically neutral. Both science and theology frequently address cause and effect and processes of development in the natural realm. Both science and theology deal with the origin of the universe, the solar system, life, and humankind.
When it comes to causes, developmental processes, and origins, two possibilities always exist: natural or supernatural. To dogmatically insist that supernatural answers must never be considered is equivalent to demanding that all human beings follow only one religion, the religion of atheistic materialism. I find it ironic that in the name of religious freedom certain science education proponents insist on ridding our teaching and research institutions of any faith that dares to compete with their own.
Argument 4: Order can come out of chaos.
The idea that under strictly natural conditions order can and will arise out of chaos was first proposed by David Hume nearly two hundred years ago. Recently it has been revived by chemist and Nobel Laureate Ilya Prigogine in his book Order Out of Chaos,39 and popularized by the blockbuster movie Jurassic Park. Hume made the claim without any evidential support. Prigogine pointed to several chemical reactions in which order appears to arise from chaotic systems. Jurassic Park actually addresses a different subject, namely chaos theory and fuzzy logic.
The principle behind chaos theory and fuzzy logic is that in trying to predict the outcome or future state of exceptionally complex systems, the investigator is better off settling for approximate answers or conclusions at each step in the solution of a problem rather than exact answers or conclusions. The presumption of a natural self-ordering principle in chaotic systems arises from the fact that the more complex a system, the greater the opportunity for departures from thermodynamic equilibrium in small portions of the system (and the greater the difficulty in determining what the thermodynamic equilibrium states actually are). According to the second law of thermodynamics, entropy increases in all systems, but entropy can decrease (i.e., order can increase) in part of a system, providing an extra increase of entropy (i.e., disorder) occurs in a different part of the system. Because human investigators may be prone to underestimate the complexity of some systems, they occasionally are surprised by how far from thermodynamic equilibrium a small portion of a system can stray. However, the thermodynamic laws predict that these departures are temporary, and the greater the departure, the more rapidly the departures are corrected.
Without departures from thermodynamic equilibrium, raindrops and snowflakes, for example, would not form. But, raindrop and snowflake formation comes close to the self-ordering limits of natural process. Though snowflake patterns exhibit a high degree of order, their information content or level of design remains quite low. The distinction is roughly like the difference between the New Testament and a book containing the sentence "God is good" repeated 90,000 times. The latter shows considerable order but not much information. The former contains both a high degree or order and a high degree of information (or design). Prigogine’s examples exhibit increases in order but without significant increases in information content. Natural processes cannot explain the exceptionally high level of design and information content in living organisms or in the structure of the universe that makes life possible.
Argument 5: As we continue to evolve, we will become the Creator-Designer.
In their book The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, astrophysicists John Barrow and Frank Tipler review many new evidences for the design of the universe.40 They go on to discuss versions of the anthropic principle like WAP (weak anthropic principle: conscious beings can only exist in an environment with characteristics that allow for their habitation), SAP (strong anthropic principle: nature must take on those characteristics to admit somewhere, sometime the existence of conscious beings), and more radical versions, including PAP (participatory anthropic principle: conscious observers are necessary to bring the universe into existence, and the universe is necessary to bring observers into existence). But what they favor is FAP (final anthropic principle).
With FAP, the life that exists (past, present, and future) will continue to evolve with the inanimate resources of the universe until it all reaches a state that Barrow and Tipler call the "Omega Point."41 This Omega Point, they say, is an Entity that has the properties of omnipotence, omnipresence, and omniscience, with the capacity to create in the past.42 In other words, the Creator-God does not exist yet, but we (all life and all inanimate structures in the universe) are gradually evolving into God. When God is thus finally constructed, His power will be such that He can create the entire universe with all of its characteristics of design billions of years ago.
In his latest book, The Physics of Immortality,43 Tipler proposes that evolution toward the Omega Point will occur through advancing computer technology. By extrapolating computer capability doubling time (currently, about eighteen months) some millions of years into the future, Tipler predicts that a future generation of human beings will be able not only to alter the entire universe and all the laws of physics but also to create a God who does not yet exist. Furthermore, we will be able to resurrect every human being who has ever lived by recovering the memories that once resided in each person’s brain.
Rebuttal: It is hard to treat these FAP and Omega Point hypotheses seriously. In the New York Review of Books, noted critic Martin Gardner offered this evaluation of Barrow and Tipler’s work:
What should we make of this quartet of WAP, SAP, PAP, and FAP? In my not so humble opinion I think the last principle is best called CRAP, the Completely Ridiculous Anthropic Principle.44
In The Physics of Immortality Tipler grossly overestimates the role of human memory and the future capability of computers. Just as computers cannot function with memory banks only, so, too, the human mind and human consciousness do not operate by memory alone. While remarkable advances in computer technology are taking place now, the laws of physics impose predictable finite limits on future computer hardware. As Roger Penrose has documented rigorously in The Emperor’s New Mind and Shadows of the Mind, these limits do not even permit the duplication of human consciousness let alone the fantastic capabilities Tipler suggests.45
But Tipler apparently wants to alter much more than just the universe and the laws of physics. He believes, for example, that future computers will be able to expose people to game theory principles so effectively that all destructive thoughts and actions will be purged and villainy no longer occur, even for the likes of Adolf Hitler and Mata Hari.46 In Tipler’s religion, the redemptive work of a Savior becomes unnecessary. Consider, however, that if Tipler’s proposal were true, the better people comprehend game theory, the less propensity they would exhibit to commit evil. Unfortunately for Tipler, no such correlation is in evidence.
Tipler not only banishes hell but also redesigns heaven. Tipler’s "heaven" brings relational (more accurately, sexual) bliss to every man and woman. He produces an equation to "prove" that this computer generated cosmic utopia will bring a woman to every man and a man to every woman capable of delivering 100,000 times the impact and satisfaction of the most fulfilling partner each can imagine in life as we know it.47 The popular appeal of such a notion documents the spiritual bankruptcy of our times. Evidently, many people have never tasted any greater delight than what sexual experience can bring.
In an article for the Skeptical Inquirer, Gardner again brandished his satiric knifes:
I leave it to the reader to decide whether they should opt for OPT (Omega Point Theology) as a new scientific religion superior to Scientology—one destined to elevate Tipler to the rank of a prophet greater than L. Ron Hubbard—or opt for the view that OPT is a wild fantasy generated by too much reading of science fiction.48
In their persistent rejection of an eternal, transcendent Creator, some cosmologists (and others) are resorting to increasingly irrational options. There is a certain logic to it, however. If for personal or moral reasons the God of the Bible is unacceptable, then given all the evidence for transcendence and design, the alternatives are limited to flights of fancy.
Through time, as we unlock more of the secrets of the vast cosmos, men and women will be even more awed about how exquisitely designed the universe is. But where will that awe be aimed—at the created thing, or at the Creator? That is each person’s choice.
REFERENCES:
1. Richard Swinburne, "Argument from the Fine-Tuning of the Universe," Physical Cosmology and Philosophy, ed. John Leslie (New York: Macmillan, 1991), page 160; Hugh Ross, The Fingerprint of God, 2nd ed. rev. (Orange, CA: Promise, 1991), page 122.
2. Ross, pages 122-123.
3. Fred Hoyle, Galaxies, Nuclei, and Quasars (New York: Harper and Row, 1965), pages 147-150; Fred Hoyle, "The Universe: Past and Present Reflection," Annual Reviews of Astronomy and Astrophysics 20 (1982), page 16; Ross, pages 126-127.
4. Fred Hoyle, The Nature of the Universe, 2nd ed. rev. (Oxford, U.K.: Basil Blackwell, 1952), page 109; Fred Hoyle, Astronomy and Cosmology: A Modern Course (San Francisco, CA: W. H. Freeman, 1975), pages 684-685; Hoyle, "The Universe: Past and Present Reflection," page 3; Hoyle, Astronomy and Cosmology, page 522.
5. Hoyle, The Nature of the Universe, page 111.
6. Hoyle, "The Universe: Past and Present Reflection," page 16.
7. John D. Barrow and Frank J. Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986), page 400.
8. James S. Trefil, The Moment of Creation (New York: Collier Books, Macmillan, 1983), pages 127-134.
9. George F.R. Ellis, "The Anthropic Principle: Laws and Environments," in The Anthropic Principle, F. Bertola and U. Curi, ed. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993), page 30; D. Allan Bromley, "Physics: Atomic and Molecular Physics," Science 209 (1980), page 116.
10. George F.R. Ellis, page 30; H.R. Marston, S.H. Allen, and S.L. Swaby, "Iron Metabolism in Copper-Deficient Rats," British Journal of Nutrition 25 (1971), pages 15-30; K.W.J. Wahle and N.T. Davies, "Effect of Dietary Copper Deficiency in the Rat on Fatty Acid Compostion of Adipose Tissue and Desaturase Activity of Liver Microsomes," British Journal of Nutrition 34 (1975), pages 105-112; Walter Mertz, "The Newer Essential Trace Elements, Chromium, Tin, Vanadium, Nickel, and Silicon," Proceedings of the Nutrition society, 33 (1974), pages 307-313.
11. John P. Cox and R. Thomas Giuli, Principles of Stellar Structure, Volume II: Applications to Stars (New York: Gordon and Breach, 1968), pages 944-1028.
12. Ross, pages 120-128; Barrow and Tipler, pages 123-457; Bernard J. Carr and Martin J. Rees, "The Anthropic Principle and the Structure of the Physical World," Nature 278 (1979), pages 605-612; John M. Templeton, "God Reveals Himself in the Astronomical and in the Infinitesimal," Journal of the American Scientific Affiliation (December 1984), pages 194-200; Jim W. Neidhardt, "The Anthropic Principle: A Religious Response," Journal of the American Scientific Affiliation (December 1984), pages 201-207; Brandon Carter, "Large Number Coincidences and the Anthropic Principle in Cosmology," Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 63: Confrontation of Cosmological Theories with Observational Data, ed. M. S. Longair (Boston, MA: Reidel Publishing, 1974), pages 291-298; John D. Barrow, "The Lore of Large Numbers: Some Historical Background to the Anthropic Principle," Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 22 (1981), pages 404-420; Alan Lightman, "To the Dizzy Edge," Science 82 (October 1982), pages 24-25; Thomas O’Toole, "Will the Universe Die by Fire or Ice?" Science 81 (April 1981), pages 71-72; Hoyle, Galaxies, Nuclei, and Quasars, pages 147-150; Bernard J. Carr, "On the Origin, Evolution, and Purpose of the Physical Universe," Physical Cosmology and Philosophy, ed. John Leslie (New York: Macmillan, 1990), pages 134-153; Swinburne, pages 154-173; R. E. Davies and R. H. Koch, "All the Observed Universe Has Contributed to Life," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, series B, 334 (1991), pages 391-403; George F.R. Ellis, pages 27-32; Hubert Reeves, "Growth of Complexity in an Expanding Universe," in The Anthropic Principle, ed. F. Bertola and U. Curi (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993), pages 67-84.
13. Davies and Koch, pages 391-403. See also chapters 3 and 4.
14. Hoyle, "The Universe," page 16.
15. Paul Davies, God and the New Physics (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1983), pages viii, 3-42, 142-143.
16. Paul Davies, Superforce (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1984), page 243.
17. Paul Davies, The Cosmic Blueprint (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1988), page 203; Paul Davies, "The Anthropic Principle," Science Digest 191, no. 10 (October 1983), page 24.
18. George Greenstein, The Symbiotic Universe (New York: William Morrow, 1988), page 27.
19. Tony Rothman, "A ‘What You See Is What You Beget’ Theory," Discover (May 1987), page 99.
20. Carr and Rees, page 612.
21. Carr, page 153 (emphasis in the original).
22. Freeman Dyson, Infinitein All Directions (New York: Harper and Row, 1988), page 298.
23. Henry Margenau and Roy Abraham Varghese, ed., Cosmos, Bios, and Theos (La Salle, IL: Open Court, 1992), page 52.
24. Margenau and Varghese, ed., page 83.
25. Stuart Gannes, Fortune, 13 October 1986, page 57.
26. Fang Li Zhi and Li Shu Xian, Creation of the Universe, trans. T. Kiang (Singapore: World Scientific, 1989), page 173.
27. Roger Penrose, in the movie A Brief History of Time (Burbank, CA: Paramount Pictures Incorporated, 1992).
28. George F.R.Ellis, page 30.
29. Edward Harrison, Masks of the Universe (New York: Collier Books, Macmillan, 1985), pages 252, 263.
30. John Noble Wilford, "Sizing Up the Cosmos: An Astronomer’s Quest," New York Times, 12 March 1991, page B9.
31. Tim Stafford, "Cease-fire in the Laboratory," Christianity Today, 3 April 1987, page 18.
32. Robert Jastrow, "The Secret of the Stars," New York Times Magazine, 25 June 1978, page 7.
33. Robert Jastrow, God and the Astronomers (New York: W. W. Norton, 1978), page 116.
34. Swinburne, page 165.
35. William Lane Craig, "Barrow and Tipler on the Anthropic Principle Versus Divine Design," British Journal of Philosophy and Science 38 (1988), page 392.
36. Joseph Silk, Cosmic Enigma (1993), pages 8-9.
37. NCSE staff, Education and Creationism Don’t Mix (Berkeley, CA: National Center for Science Education, 1985), page 3; Eugenie C. Scott, "Of Pandas and People," National Center for Science Education Reports (January-February 1990), page 18; Paul Bartelt, "Patterson and Gish at Morningside College," The Committees of Correspondence, Iowa Committee of Correspondence Newsletter, vol. 4, no. 4 (October 1989), page 1.
38. Education and Creationism Don’t Mix, page 3; Eugenie C. Scott and Henry P. Cole, "The Elusive Scientific Basis of Creation Science," The Quarterly Review of Biology (March 1985), page 297.
39. Ilya Prigogine and Isabelle Stengers, Order Out Of Chaos: Man’s New Dialogue With Nature (New York: Bantam Books, 1984).
40. Barrow and Tipler.
41. Barrow and Tipler, page 676-677.
42. Barrow and Tipler, pages 676-677, 682; Martin Gardner, "Notes of a Fringe-Watcher: Tipler’s Omega Point Theory," Skeptical Inquirer 15, no. 2 (1991), pages 128-132.
43. Frank J. Tipler, The Physics of Immortality: Modern Cosmology, God, and the Resurrection of the Dead (New York: Doubleday, 1994).
44. Martin Gardner, "WAP, SAP, PAP, and FAP," The New York Review of Books, vol. 23, no. 8, 8 May 1986, pages 22-25.
45. Roger Penrose, The Emperor’s New Mind (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989), pages 3-145, 374-451; Roger Penrose, Shadows of the Mind (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), pages 7-208.
46. Frank J. Tipler, pages 253-255.
47. Frank J. Tipler, pages 256-257.
48. Gardner, "Notes of a Fringe-Watcher," page 132.
Posted by lck at 03:25 AM | Comments (0)
August 16, 2005
Clem Snide, private asshole
If you were freaking out about Google Maps which is military-limited as it only goes so far, try A9 Maps.
Amazon's Seach Utility A9 is offering street-level shots of major American cities for your perusal.
We did anticipate an eye on A9 as a potential major player and fast-growing service with good shoulders. Amazon is playing hard boiled in the quest for best and most refined map utility down to high-quality door-mapping, right down your keyhole. Find your face on Chestnut Street, were you the delivery boy? Still advocating privacy?
Be sure to read A9's Privacy Policy Statement before signing on, because A9 will be storing and using your personal information, both to customize your search results and for commercial purposes.
Take Manhattan first... advertising next.
Samples of street-level side pics offered:
1) Between Broadway and 7th Avenue
2) Between Broadway and the 46th
3) Between Broadway and the 48th
Posted by lck at 08:34 PM | Comments (0)
Istra
A virtual walk through cities in Istria - Croatia, using 360 panoramas and flash technology.
Posted by lck at 03:18 PM | Comments (0)
August 15, 2005
61 rooms, 21 artist, 1,000 ideas
HotelFox, Copenhagen, a designer's hotel.
For the launch of the new Volkswagen Fox 21 international artists from the fields of graphic design, urban art and illustration turned Hotel Fox in central Copenhagen, into the world’s most exciting and creative lifestyle hotel.
Posted by lck at 08:21 PM | Comments (0)
Gaza, Yo-Yo's & Crashes on Lobster's Day
Charles Johnson of Little Green Football provides Gaza Watch, a photoblog (servers occasionally overloaded) featuring raw, unedited photos from residents of the Gaza Strip, as Israel prepares to carry out its disengagement plan. Take these pictures at face value.
We hope the disengagement will not kill anybody. Is easy to say it was approved and planned (with striking contrast within the Israeli government), a different story altogether is to get these people out of their very own houses, rid of their memories, abandon jobs and fields they cultivate. This ain't gonna be easy.
While mostly everything is shutdown on Lobster's Day (a.k.a. Ferragosto, today) we are still carrying out some design work for clients that are not on vacation on the other side of the world. In the meantime more domestic-type duties are being taken care of. Our child woke up today from dreaming about a yo-yo that she absolutely needs, a life impending catastrophe. Name anything harder to buy on a day when toy stores (plus everything else) are closed. Put that together with much needed, but fairly easier to find eggs (we need to make brownies) and off we go, me and the kid. We actually managed to scavenger down to a korean stand that had little toys on sale, not a yo-yo, and kid was diligent enough to adopt this little battery-powered cute puppy, named Huatai, instead of the chinese willbilly stretcher. Life's easy when kids decide to learn from what they see.
The stand was lying by a pool of smaller tables, each with 4 old men playing cards. The total number of players must have been close to 80.
The recent disaster involving a B-737 out of Larnaca, Cyprus, impacting a mountain right by Athens, Greece. What to say? I can tell about a conversation I had several years ago with a B-737 pilot, one out of the 50 of this type the US Navy bought in order to replace their aging fleet of DC-9. I do not mean this to prove anything, especially if it will be demonstated that the aircraft was hijacked by terrorists. Asof now bodies have been found that were solid-frozen even after impact.
The US Navy received these 50 B-737, re-named them C-40 taking over the commercial name from Boeing, and sent them around to several bases, one to the NAS base here in Sicily. I was full-time working at tower at that time and was receiving this craft crew for brief and flight plan submission. We were pretty excited to receive our first C-40 and were full of questions for the crew. I can tell they were not excited at all. They said the craft was crazy to balance and limited to fly below 2000 feet. Below 2000 feet? Is that reasonable? No, it is not and the rationale behind this limitation was that several sections of the fuselage freeze at high altitude. They said that they were going to report to their command and release the aircraft back. The crew refused to fly it on active missions and our first C-40 had to be brought back to the US with report of major safety hazards. The US Navy reconditioned all 50 aircrafts at their expenses. Boeing refused to do it as they